Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hilden vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
CANC
14:30
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
2/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hilden74%
×Draw15%
1.FC Monchengladbach11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.81
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.02

Hilden creates 175% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
89%
Hilden or 1.FC Monchengladbach
85%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
26%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
53%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
94%
Hilden 2+ goals
76%
Hilden 3+ goals
52%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
64%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
27%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
87%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.81

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Hilden scores more
74%
level
15%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
11%

Hilden at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hilden face 1.FC Monchengladbach (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Hilden hosting 1.FC Monchengladbach. Match starts February 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hilden host 1.FC Monchengladbach at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.