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1.FC Monchengladbach vs Hilden — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
FT
2 – 3
Hilden
Hilden
9/5/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach17%
×Draw17%
Hilden67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.39
Hilden
2.83

Hilden creates 104% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
Hilden
2.19

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
Hilden
1.45

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

Hilden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
33%
1.FC Monchengladbach or Hilden
83%
Draw or Hilden
83%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
7%
Hilden wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
75%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
40%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
16%
Hilden 1+ goals
94%
Hilden 2+ goals
77%
Hilden 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
20%
Hilden (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hilden attack 2.19 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
17%
level
17%
Hilden scores more
67%

Hilden at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: 1.FC Monchengladbach 2–3 Hilden

Hilden beat 1.FC Monchengladbach 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn in Mönchengladbach.