Hilden U19 2–4 Borussia M'bach U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

C. Mockschan 20'

V. Ismailji 4'

T. Reitz 90+8' (pen), 59', 42' (pen)

R. Valentine 55' (OG)

4/1/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 2Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1926%

×Draw20%

Borussia M'bach U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.33

Hilden U19

1.56

Borussia M'bach U19

2.33

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

1.67

creates per match

2.32

2.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

45%

Hilden U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

80%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

74%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

12%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

79%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

46%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

67%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

26%

level

20%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

55%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Ismailji

20'

C. Mockschan

42'

T. ReitzPenalty

55'

R. ValentineOwn goal

59'

T. Reitz

61'

67'

E. Dervis← V. Ismailji

67'

T. Mersinli← C. Kayser

69'

M. Nack← S. Turping

78'

M. Majetic← M. Beinhauer

85'

S. Zenku← N. Adedeji-Sternberg

90+6'

90'

P. Spittmann← K. Temiz

90'

D. Deumi-Nappi← J. Uwakhonye

90'

L. Werrmann← S. Fukuda

90+8'

T. ReitzPenalty

Hilden

Borussia

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

67'▲E. Dervis←▼V. Ismailji

67'▲T. Mersinli←▼C. Kayser

78'▲M. Majetic←▼M. Beinhauer

90'▲P. Spittmann←▼K. Temiz

Hilden U19 substitutes

DervisMersinliMajeticSpittmannLiamposThesis

Manager: A. Ende

69'▲M. Nack←▼S. Turping

85'▲S. Zenku←▼N. Adedeji-Sternberg

90'▲D. Deumi-Nappi←▼J. Uwakhonye

90'▲L. Werrmann←▼S. Fukuda

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

NackZenkuDeumi-NappiWerrmannBrühlBloch

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Hilden U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 1, 2023.

Goals: V. Ismailji (4'), C. Mockschan (20'), T. Reitz (42' pen, 59', 90+8' pen), R. Valentine (55' o.g.).

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch in Hilden.

Hilden U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19