Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Hilden U19

L. Korytowski 90+2' (pen)

D. Arize 72', 5'

V. Ismailji 45+5'

J. Tkacik 26'

11/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 8Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1961%

×Draw19%

Hilden U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.32

Borussia M'bach U19

2.43

Hilden U19

1.32

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

80%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Hilden U19

81%

Draw or Hilden U19

39%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

40%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

91%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

69%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

43%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

73%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

38%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.43

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Hilden U19 scores more

20%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Arize

26'

J. Tkacik

38'

Y. Dasbach← D. Hülsenbusch

38'

T. Mersinli← S. Schröder

45+5'

V. Ismailji

63'

W. Boteli← K. Gerhardt

63'

D. Berko← S. Zenku

66'

L. Tairi← V. Ismailji

66'

S. Dombe← C. Kayser

72'

D. Arize

79'

L. Korytowski← N. Adedeji-Sternberg

88'

B. Potnar← J. Tkacik

88'

M. Alexy← B. Arslanboga

90+2'

L. KorytowskiPenalty

Borussia

Hilden

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ismailji

▼

Kayser

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: S. König

38'▲Y. Dasbach←▼D. Hülsenbusch

63'▲W. Boteli←▼K. Gerhardt

63'▲D. Berko←▼S. Zenku

79'▲L. Korytowski←▼N. Adedeji-Sternberg

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

DasbachBoteliBerkoKorytowskiWirthBloch

Manager: P. Schütz

38'▲T. Mersinli←▼S. Schröder

66'▲L. Tairi←▼V. Ismailji

66'▲S. Dombe←▼C. Kayser

88'▲B. Potnar←▼J. Tkacik

88'▲M. Alexy←▼B. Arslanboga

Hilden U19 substitutes

MersinliTairiDombePotnarAlexyBeinhauerValentine

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Hilden U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Hilden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Arize (5', 72'), J. Tkacik (26'), V. Ismailji (45+5'), L. Korytowski (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia M'bach U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Hilden U19