Hilden U19 4–2 Bonner SC U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Bonner SC U19

B. Arslanboga 46'

C. Mockschan 36'

C. Kayser 20'

V. Ismailji 13'

M. Gültekin 81'

N. Tomson 52'

12/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 11Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hilden U1955%

×Draw20%

Bonner SC U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchBonner SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.56

Hilden U19

2.38

Bonner SC U19

1.56

Hilden U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.80

2.33

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Bonner SC U19

0.80

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Bonner SC U19

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Bonner SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

75%

Hilden U19 or Bonner SC U19

80%

Draw or Bonner SC U19

45%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

35%

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

91%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

68%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

42%

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

79%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

46%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Bonner SC U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Bonner SC U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.38

Bonner SC U19 attack 0.80 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Bonner SC U19 scores more

25%

Hilden U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hilden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

N. Förster← S. Krämer

13'

V. Ismailji

20'

C. Kayser

36'

C. Mockschan

46'

M. Gültekin← T. Wieschebrock

46'

M. Ojesanmi← E. Ünal

46'

N. Lee← K. Mohylevets

46'

O. Lichter← D. Sinanoglu

46'

B. Arslanboga

52'

N. Tomson

53'

O. Lichter

64'

B. Potnar← B. Arslanboga

75'

D. Lewandowski← C. Kayser

75'

P. Spittmann← A. Sari

80'

M. Beinhauer← J. Tkacik

81'

M. Gültekin

Hilden

Bonner

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Arslanbog

⚽

Ismailji

⚽

▼

Kayser

▼

Tkacik

Manager: P. Schütz

64'▲B. Potnar←▼B. Arslanboga

75'▲D. Lewandowski←▼C. Kayser

75'▲P. Spittmann←▼A. Sari

80'▲M. Beinhauer←▼J. Tkacik

Hilden U19 substitutes

PotnarLewandowskiSpittmannBeinhauerValentine

Manager: M. Ndjeng

13'▲N. Förster←▼S. Krämer

46'▲M. Gültekin←▼T. Wieschebrock

46'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼E. Ünal

46'▲N. Lee←▼K. Mohylevets

46'▲O. Lichter←▼D. Sinanoglu

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

FörsterGültekinOjesanmiLeeLichterKalayciQorrolli

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 4–2 Bonner SC U19

Hilden U19 beat Bonner SC U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2022.

Goals: V. Ismailji (13'), C. Kayser (20'), C. Mockschan (36'), B. Arslanboga (46'), N. Tomson (52'), M. Gültekin (81').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch in Hilden.

Hilden U19 vs Bonner SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 4–2 Bonner SC U19