Bonner SC U19 0–1 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden U19

B. Fazlija 30' (pen)

4/16/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bonner SC U1939%

×Draw22%

Hilden U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.89

Bonner SC U19

1.87

Hilden U19

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.18

creates per match

1.33

2.45

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

60%

Bonner SC U19 or Hilden U19

78%

Draw or Hilden U19

61%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

21%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

85%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

56%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

29%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

85%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

56%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

39%

level

22%

Hilden U19 scores more

40%

Hilden U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hilden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

B. FazlijaPenalty

46'

E. Dervis← T. Schwarz

46'

T. Mersinli← M. Beinhauer

52'

K. Mohylevets← N. Lee

71'

D. Lewandowski← C. Kayser

71'

P. Spittmann← B. Fazlija

72'

E. Cindrak← M. Gültekin

86'

B. Boboy← N. Förster

86'

C. Abresch← L. Qorrolli

86'

J. Osawe← E. Ünal

87'

M. Majetic← C. Mockschan

Bonner

Hilden

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

52'▲K. Mohylevets←▼N. Lee

72'▲E. Cindrak←▼M. Gültekin

86'▲B. Boboy←▼N. Förster

86'▲C. Abresch←▼L. Qorrolli

86'▲J. Osawe←▼E. Ünal

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

MohylevetsCindrakBoboyAbreschOsaweHövel

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲E. Dervis←▼T. Schwarz

46'▲T. Mersinli←▼M. Beinhauer

71'▲D. Lewandowski←▼C. Kayser

71'▲P. Spittmann←▼B. Fazlija

87'▲M. Majetic←▼C. Mockschan

Hilden U19 substitutes

DervisMersinliLewandowskiSpittmannMajeticSariHorsch