Hilden U19 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bayer Leverkusen U19

T. Schwarz 72'

B. Fazlija 18' (pen)

Jung In-Gyom 44'

C. Moustfa 42'

3/26/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1925%

×Draw20%

Bayer Leverkusen U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.27

Hilden U19

1.49

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.27

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 64 away

1.67

creates per match

2.20

2.33

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

45%

Hilden U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

80%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

75%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

11%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

77%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

44%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

19%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

90%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

66%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

25%

level

20%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

55%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. FazlijaPenalty

42'

C. Moustfa

44'

Jung In-Gyom

46'

D. Lewandowski← C. Mockschan

46'

M. Majetic← T. Mersinli

64'

E. Yılmaz← J. Zirkzee

64'

V. Ballı Ballıçalıoğlu← M. Marsenić

72'

T. Schwarz

81'

P. Spittmann← V. Ismailji

88'

E. Dervis← M. Beinhauer

90'

C. Liampos← B. Potnar

Hilden

Bayer

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲D. Lewandowski←▼C. Mockschan

46'▲M. Majetic←▼T. Mersinli

81'▲P. Spittmann←▼V. Ismailji

88'▲E. Dervis←▼M. Beinhauer

90'▲C. Liampos←▼B. Potnar

Hilden U19 substitutes

LewandowskiMajeticSpittmannDervisLiamposThesis

Manager: S. Hübscher

64'▲E. Yılmaz←▼J. Zirkzee

64'▲V. Ballı Ballıçalıoğlu←▼M. Marsenić

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

YılmazBallıçalıoğluMoratallaNeutgensCamaraSolmazSpitali