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Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hilden U19
Hilden U19
8/14/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 1Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1965%
×Draw18%
Hilden U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.60
Hilden U19
1.29

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.65
Hilden U19
1.33

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.26
Hilden U19
2.56

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
83%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Hilden U19
82%
Draw or Hilden U19
35%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
44%
Hilden U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
92%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
73%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
47%
Hilden U19 1+ goals
72%
Hilden U19 2+ goals
37%
Hilden U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Hilden U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.60

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
65%
level
18%
Hilden U19 scores more
17%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Hilden U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Hilden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.