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Hilal Obayed vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
3 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
12/24/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 17Al-Ubayyid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hilal Obayed59%
×Draw25%
Al Rabta Kosti16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.60
Al Rabta Kosti
0.70

Hilal Obayed creates 129% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Al Rabta Kosti
0.56

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Al Rabta Kosti
1.87

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
84%
Hilal Obayed or Al Rabta Kosti
75%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
41%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
32%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
80%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
47%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
22%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
50%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
16%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
78%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
59%
level
25%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
16%

Hilal Obayed at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hilal Obayed 3 – 0 Al Rabta Kosti

Hilal Obayed beat Al Rabta Kosti 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 24, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Ubayyid Stadium in Al-Ubayyid.