Al Rabta Kosti 1–3 Hilal Obayed: Result & Stats

Al Rabta Kosti

FT

1 – 3

Hilal Obayed

2/8/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 19Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti42%

×Draw31%

Hilal Obayed27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Rabta KostiExpected goals in this matchHilal Obayed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.85

Al Rabta Kosti

1.13

Hilal Obayed

0.85

Al Rabta Kosti creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

0.93

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.93

Hilal Obayed

0.86

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.84

Hilal Obayed

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Hilal Obayed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw

73%

Al Rabta Kosti or Hilal Obayed

69%

Draw or Hilal Obayed

58%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

18%

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

68%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

31%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

11%

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals

57%

Hilal Obayed 2+ goals

21%

Hilal Obayed 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

61%

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

42%

level

31%

Hilal Obayed scores more

27%

Al Rabta Kosti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff