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Hilal Obayed vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
1 – 1
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
7/17/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 24Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hilal Obayed51%
×Draw27%
Al Hilal Kadougli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.43
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.83

Hilal Obayed creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.30
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.80

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.86
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
78%
Hilal Obayed or Al Hilal Kadougli
73%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
49%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
25%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
76%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
42%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
17%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
56%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
20%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
70%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.30 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.80 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
51%
level
27%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
22%

Hilal Obayed at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal Obayed vs Al Hilal Kadougli

Hilal Obayed and Al Hilal Kadougli drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.