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Al Hilal Kadougli vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
FT
0 – 0
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
9/25/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Murta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Hilal Kadougli39%
×Draw30%
Hilal Obayed31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.14
Hilal Obayed
0.97

Al Hilal Kadougli creates 18% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
0.95
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.07
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Kadougli ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Kadougli or draw
69%
Al Hilal Kadougli or Hilal Obayed
70%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
61%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
16%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
68%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
32%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
11%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
62%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
25%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
56%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Kadougli at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.95 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
39%
level
30%
Hilal Obayed scores more
31%

Al Hilal Kadougli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hilal Kadougli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Kadougli 0–0 Hilal Obayed

Al Hilal Kadougli and Hilal Obayed drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Murta Stadium in Kadougli.