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Hilal Obayed vs Al-Ahli Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
1 – 0
Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
8/28/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Al-Ubayyid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hilal Obayed69%
×Draw20%
Al-Ahli Atbara12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
2.00
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.67

Hilal Obayed creates 199% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.50

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Al-Ahli Atbara
2.67

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
88%
Hilal Obayed or Al-Ahli Atbara
80%
Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara
31%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
43%
Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
86%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
59%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
32%
Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
49%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
15%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
86%
Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
69%
level
20%
Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
12%

Hilal Obayed at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hilal Obayed 1–0 Al-Ahli Atbara

Hilal Obayed beat Al-Ahli Atbara 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on August 28, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Ubayyid Stadium in Al-Ubayyid.