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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
1 – 4
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
2/24/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 22Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara35%
×Draw27%
Hilal Obayed38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.23
Hilal Obayed
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
62%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Hilal Obayed
73%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
65%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
15%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
71%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
35%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
13%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
72%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
37%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
48%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
35%
level
27%
Hilal Obayed scores more
38%

Hilal Obayed at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Atbara vs Hilal Obayed

Hilal Obayed beat Al-Ahli Atbara 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.