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Hilal El-Fasher vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
1 – 0
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
2/12/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher33%
×Draw31%
Haidob En Nahud35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
0.96
Haidob En Nahud
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.00
Haidob En Nahud
0.92

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.07
Haidob En Nahud
0.92

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
65%
Hilal El-Fasher or Haidob En Nahud
69%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
67%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
12%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
62%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
25%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
7%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
63%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
26%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
48%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.00 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Haidob En Nahud attack 0.92 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
33%
level
31%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
35%

Haidob En Nahud at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal El-Fasher vs Haidob En Nahud

Hilal El-Fasher beat Haidob En Nahud 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 12, 2026.