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Haidob En Nahud vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2025

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
2/14/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Rabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Haidob En Nahud32%
×Draw29%
Hilal El-Fasher39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.03
Hilal El-Fasher
1.17

Hilal El-Fasher creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.18
Hilal El-Fasher
1.25

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.09
Hilal El-Fasher
0.88

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
61%
Haidob En Nahud or Hilal El-Fasher
71%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
68%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
12%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
64%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
28%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
9%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
69%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
33%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
45%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.18 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.25 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
32%
level
29%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
39%

Hilal El-Fasher at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Haidob En Nahud 1–4 Hilal El-Fasher

Hilal El-Fasher beat Haidob En Nahud 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Rabak Stadium in Rabak.