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Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
2/11/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher40%
×Draw32%
Al Rabta Kosti28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
1.03
Al Rabta Kosti
0.80

Hilal El-Fasher creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.12
Al Rabta Kosti
0.53

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.06
Al Rabta Kosti
0.93

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
72%
Hilal El-Fasher or Al Rabta Kosti
68%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
60%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
16%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
64%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
28%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
9%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
55%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
19%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
59%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.12 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.53 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
40%
level
32%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
28%

Hilal El-Fasher at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Rabta Kosti

Al Rabta Kosti beat Hilal El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 11, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.