Hilal El-Fasher 2–1 Al Rabta Kosti: Result & Stats

Hilal El-Fasher

FT

2 – 1

Al Rabta Kosti

10/15/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 2Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher44%

×Draw29%

Al Rabta Kosti27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal El-FasherExpected goals in this matchAl Rabta Kosti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.90

Hilal El-Fasher

1.23

Al Rabta Kosti

0.90

Hilal El-Fasher creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

0.65

1.14

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.41

Al Rabta Kosti

0.65

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.14

Al Rabta Kosti

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw

73%

Hilal El-Fasher or Al Rabta Kosti

71%

Draw or Al Rabta Kosti

56%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

19%

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

71%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

35%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

13%

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

59%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

23%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

62%

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.41 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.65 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

44%

level

29%

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

27%

Hilal El-Fasher at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff