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Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
3 – 0
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
7/22/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 29Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher38%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
1.16
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.41
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.14
Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.90

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
67%
Hilal El-Fasher or Al Hilal Port Sudan
71%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
62%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
16%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
69%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
32%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
11%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
66%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
53%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.41 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
38%
level
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
33%

Hilal El-Fasher at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Hilal El-Fasher beat Al Hilal Port Sudan 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.