Al Hilal Port Sudan 0–1 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Hilal Port Sudan

FT

0 – 1

Hilal El-Fasher

5/17/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 16Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan36%

×Draw32%

Hilal El-Fasher32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal Port SudanExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.91

Al Hilal Port Sudan

0.97

Hilal El-Fasher

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

0.62

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.00

Hilal El-Fasher

1.19

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan

0.62

Hilal El-Fasher

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw

68%

Al Hilal Port Sudan or Hilal El-Fasher

68%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

64%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+

13%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals

62%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals

25%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals

7%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

60%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

23%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)

52%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.19 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more

36%

level

32%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

32%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff