Hilal El-Fasher 2–1 Al Hilal Kadougli

Hilal El-Fasher

FT

2 – 1

Al Hilal Kadougli

12/13/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 12Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher48%

×Draw27%

Al Hilal Kadougli25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal El-FasherExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Kadougli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.92

Hilal El-Fasher

1.38

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.92

Hilal El-Fasher creates 50% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 43 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.20

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.79

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.04

Al Hilal Kadougli

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw

75%

Hilal El-Fasher or Al Hilal Kadougli

73%

Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli

52%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

23%

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

75%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

40%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

16%

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals

60%

Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals

23%

Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

65%

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

48%

level

27%

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more

25%

Hilal El-Fasher at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff