Al Hilal Kadougli 3–1 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Hilal Kadougli

FT

3 – 1

Hilal El-Fasher

6/28/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 18Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Hilal Kadougli38%

×Draw30%

Hilal El-Fasher32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal KadougliExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.97

Al Hilal Kadougli

1.10

Hilal El-Fasher

0.97

Al Hilal Kadougli creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 77 away

0.95

creates per match

0.86

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.95

Hilal El-Fasher

0.86

allows per match

Al Hilal Kadougli

1.07

Hilal El-Fasher

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Kadougli ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Kadougli or draw

68%

Al Hilal Kadougli or Hilal El-Fasher

70%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

62%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+

16%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals

67%

Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals

30%

Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals

10%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

62%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

25%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)

55%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Kadougli at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.95 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hilal El-Fasher attack 0.86 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more

38%

level

30%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

32%

Al Hilal Kadougli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Hilal Kadougli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff