Hilal El-Fasher 1–0 Al Fallah: Result & Stats

Hilal El-Fasher

FT

1 – 0

Al Fallah

12/28/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 17Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher47%

×Draw31%

Al Fallah22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal El-FasherExpected goals in this matchAl Fallah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.71

Hilal El-Fasher

1.17

Al Fallah

0.71

Hilal El-Fasher creates 65% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.00

Al Fallah

0.43

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.00

Al Fallah

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Fallah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw

78%

Hilal El-Fasher or Al Fallah

69%

Draw or Al Fallah

53%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

20%

Al Fallah wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

69%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

33%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

11%

Al Fallah 1+ goals

51%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

16%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

68%

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.00 + Al Fallah defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Fallah attack 0.43 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

47%

level

31%

Al Fallah scores more

22%

Hilal El-Fasher at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff