Al Fallah 2–0 Hilal El-Fasher: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

2 – 0

Hilal El-Fasher

10/20/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 34Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al Fallah25%

×Draw31%

Hilal El-Fasher44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.13

Al Fallah

0.78

Hilal El-Fasher

1.13

Hilal El-Fasher creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Al Fallah

0.67

Hilal El-Fasher

1.25

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.00

Hilal El-Fasher

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

56%

Al Fallah or Hilal El-Fasher

69%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

75%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

8%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

54%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

18%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

4%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

68%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

31%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

37%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.67 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.25 + Al Fallah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Fallah scores more

25%

level

31%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

44%

Hilal El-Fasher at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff