Hilal El-Fasher 2–0 Al-Ahli Atbara: Result & Stats

Hilal El-Fasher

FT

2 – 0

Al-Ahli Atbara

9/19/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 28Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher65%

×Draw21%

Al-Ahli Atbara14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal El-FasherExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.77

Hilal El-Fasher

1.94

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.77

Hilal El-Fasher creates 152% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

0.50

1.04

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.20

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.50

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher

1.04

Al-Ahli Atbara

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw

86%

Hilal El-Fasher or Al-Ahli Atbara

79%

Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara

35%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

39%

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

86%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

58%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

30%

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals

54%

Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals

18%

Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

82%

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

65%

level

21%

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more

14%

Hilal El-Fasher at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff