Al-Ahli Atbara 2–0 Hilal El-Fasher: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Atbara

FT

2 – 0

Hilal El-Fasher

11/22/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 11Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara34%

×Draw27%

Hilal El-Fasher39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli AtbaraExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.19

Hilal El-Fasher

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.73

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.13

Hilal El-Fasher

0.86

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara

1.73

Hilal El-Fasher

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw

61%

Al-Ahli Atbara or Hilal El-Fasher

73%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

66%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+

14%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals

70%

Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals

33%

Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals

12%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

72%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

37%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)

47%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hilal El-Fasher attack 0.86 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more

34%

level

27%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

39%

Hilal El-Fasher at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff