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Hilal Al-Quds vs Al Nejmeh — AFC Cup 2018

Hilal Al-Quds
Hilal Al-Quds
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
5/3/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hilal Al-Quds46%
×Draw24%
Al Nejmeh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Al-Quds
1.63
Al Nejmeh
1.25

Hilal Al-Quds creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.00
Al Nejmeh
1.00

allows per match

Hilal Al-Quds
1.50
Al Nejmeh
2.25

finishing

Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par
Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Al-Quds ↓

Al Nejmeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hilal Al-Quds or draw
71%
Hilal Al-Quds or Al Nejmeh
76%
Draw or Al Nejmeh
54%

Winning margin

Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+
24%
Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals
80%
Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals
48%
Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals
22%
Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
71%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
36%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)
61%
Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Al-Quds at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Al Nejmeh away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Al-Quds attack 1.00 + Al Nejmeh defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al Nejmeh attack 1.00 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hilal Al-Quds scores more
46%
level
24%
Al Nejmeh scores more
29%

Hilal Al-Quds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hilal Al-Quds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Hilal Al-Quds 2–1 Al Nejmeh

Hilal Al-Quds beat Al Nejmeh 2-1 in AFC Cup on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah).