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Al Nejmeh vs Hilal Al-Quds — AFC Cup 2018

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hilal Al-Quds
Hilal Al-Quds
5/6/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Nejmeh22%
×Draw29%
Hilal Al-Quds49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
0.78
Hilal Al-Quds
1.30

Hilal Al-Quds creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
0.57
Hilal Al-Quds
0.89

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
1.71
Hilal Al-Quds
1.00

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Hilal Al-Quds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
51%
Al Nejmeh or Hilal Al-Quds
71%
Draw or Hilal Al-Quds
78%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
7%
Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
54%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
18%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
4%
Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals
73%
Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals
37%
Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
31%
Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Hilal Al-Quds away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 0.57 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hilal Al-Quds attack 0.89 + Al Nejmeh defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
22%
level
29%
Hilal Al-Quds scores more
49%

Hilal Al-Quds at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hilal Al-Quds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Nejmeh 1–2 Hilal Al-Quds

Hilal Al-Quds beat Al Nejmeh 2-1 in AFC Cup on May 6, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah).