Highlands Park FC 1–0 Cape Town City

Highlands Park FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cape Town City

9/2/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC42%

×Draw28%

Cape Town City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Highlands Park FCExpected goals in this matchCape Town City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.99

Highlands Park FC

1.26

Cape Town City

0.99

Highlands Park FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 109 away

1.33

creates per match

0.95

1.03

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Highlands Park FC

1.33

Cape Town City

0.95

allows per match

Highlands Park FC

1.03

Cape Town City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Cape Town City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Cape Town City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw

71%

Highlands Park FC or Cape Town City

72%

Draw or Cape Town City

58%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

19%

Cape Town City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

72%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

36%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

13%

Cape Town City 1+ goals

63%

Cape Town City 2+ goals

26%

Cape Town City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

59%

Cape Town City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Cape Town City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Cape Town City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cape Town City attack 0.95 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Cape Town City scores more

29%

Highlands Park FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Highlands Park FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff