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Cape Town City vs Highlands Park FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
11/30/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cape Town City45%
×Draw29%
Highlands Park FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.26
Highlands Park FC
0.89

Cape Town City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Highlands Park FC
0.83

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Highlands Park FC
1.20

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Highlands Park FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
74%
Cape Town City or Highlands Park FC
71%
Draw or Highlands Park FC
55%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
20%
Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
72%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
36%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
13%
Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
59%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
22%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
63%
Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cape Town City scores more
45%
level
29%
Highlands Park FC scores more
26%

Cape Town City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cape Town City vs Highlands Park FC

Cape Town City and Highlands Park FC drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town.