Highlands Park FC 1–0 Baroka FC: Result & Stats

Highlands Park FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baroka FC

2/1/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 16Makhulong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC47%

×Draw28%

Baroka FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Highlands Park FCExpected goals in this matchBaroka FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.90

Highlands Park FC

1.33

Baroka FC

0.90

Highlands Park FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

1.33

creates per match

0.76

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Highlands Park FC

1.33

Baroka FC

0.76

allows per match

Highlands Park FC

1.03

Baroka FC

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Baroka FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw

75%

Highlands Park FC or Baroka FC

72%

Draw or Baroka FC

53%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

22%

Baroka FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

74%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

38%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

15%

Baroka FC 1+ goals

59%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

23%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

65%

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Baroka FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Baroka FC attack 0.76 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more

47%

level

28%

Baroka FC scores more

25%

Highlands Park FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Highlands Park FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff