Baroka FC 1–1 Highlands Park FC: Result & Stats

Baroka FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Highlands Park FC

8/29/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 3Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baroka FC36%

×Draw32%

Highlands Park FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baroka FCExpected goals in this matchHighlands Park FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.93

Baroka FC

1.00

Highlands Park FC

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

0.81

creates per match

0.83

1.03

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Baroka FC

0.81

Highlands Park FC

0.83

allows per match

Baroka FC

1.03

Highlands Park FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

Highlands Park FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw

68%

Baroka FC or Highlands Park FC

68%

Draw or Highlands Park FC

64%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+

14%

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals

63%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

26%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

8%

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

61%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

24%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

53%

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.81 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Baroka FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baroka FC scores more

36%

level

32%

Highlands Park FC scores more

32%

Baroka FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baroka FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff