Highlanders 5–0 Black Swallows: Result & Stats

Highlanders

FT

5 – 0

Black Swallows

5/9/2021

Premier League · Round 10King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Highlanders59%

×Draw23%

Black Swallows18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HighlandersExpected goals in this matchBlack Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.86

Highlanders

1.79

Black Swallows

0.86

Highlanders creates 108% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.58

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Highlanders

1.58

Black Swallows

0.73

allows per match

Highlanders

1.00

Black Swallows

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par

Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Black Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw

82%

Highlanders or Black Swallows

77%

Draw or Black Swallows

41%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+

34%

Black Swallows wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals

83%

Highlanders 2+ goals

53%

Highlanders 3+ goals

26%

Black Swallows 1+ goals

58%

Black Swallows 2+ goals

21%

Black Swallows 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)

77%

Black Swallows (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Highlanders scores more

59%

level

23%

Black Swallows scores more

18%

Highlanders at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff