Black Swallows 3–1 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Black Swallows

FT

3 – 1

Highlanders

7/31/2021

Premier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows27%

×Draw25%

Highlanders48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black SwallowsExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.61

Black Swallows

1.13

Highlanders

1.61

Highlanders creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

1.33

creates per match

1.29

1.93

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Black Swallows

1.33

Highlanders

1.29

allows per match

Black Swallows

1.93

Highlanders

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw

52%

Black Swallows or Highlanders

75%

Draw or Highlanders

73%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+

10%

Highlanders wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals

68%

Black Swallows 2+ goals

31%

Black Swallows 3+ goals

11%

Highlanders 1+ goals

80%

Highlanders 2+ goals

48%

Highlanders 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)

36%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Black Swallows scores more

27%

level

25%

Highlanders scores more

48%

Highlanders at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff