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HIFK Helsinki vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
4/14/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 1Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

HIFK Helsinki48%
×Draw24%
Gnistan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.73
Gnistan
1.27

HIFK Helsinki creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.63
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
0.96
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
72%
HIFK Helsinki or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
52%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
26%
Gnistan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
82%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
52%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
25%
Gnistan 1+ goals
72%
Gnistan 2+ goals
36%
Gnistan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
63%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.63 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gnistan attack 1.57 + HIFK Helsinki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
48%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
28%

HIFK Helsinki at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: HIFK Helsinki 0–2 Gnistan

Gnistan beat HIFK Helsinki 2-0 in Ykkönen on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.