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Gnistan vs HIFK Helsinki — Ykkönen 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
6/28/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 12Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gnistan41%
×Draw25%
HIFK Helsinki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.50
HIFK Helsinki
1.35

Gnistan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.69
HIFK Helsinki
1.48

allows per match

Gnistan
1.23
HIFK Helsinki
1.30

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
66%
Gnistan or HIFK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
59%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
20%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
78%
Gnistan 2+ goals
44%
Gnistan 3+ goals
19%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
74%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
39%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
54%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.69 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.48 + Gnistan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gnistan scores more
41%
level
25%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
34%

Gnistan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gnistan vs HIFK Helsinki

Gnistan beat HIFK Helsinki 4-0 in Ykkönen on June 28, 2023.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.