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Hidasnémeti vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
L. Girdan 88'
K. Korbely 86'
P. Benko 77'
K. Jonyer 53'
5/15/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 36Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti26%
×Draw22%
Diósgyőr II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hidasnémeti
1.29
Diósgyőr II
1.92

Diósgyőr II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hidasnémeti
0.89
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Hidasnémeti
2.53
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw
48%
Hidasnémeti or Diósgyőr II
78%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
74%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
11%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
72%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
37%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
14%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
85%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
57%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
33%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more
26%
level
22%
Diósgyőr II scores more
52%

Diósgyőr II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
K. Jonyer
77'
P. Benko
86'
K. Korbely
88'
L. Girdan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Hidasnémeti 0–4 Diósgyőr II

Diósgyőr II beat Hidasnémeti 4-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 15, 2022.

Goals: K. Jonyer (53'), P. Benko (77'), K. Korbely (86'), L. Girdan (88').

The match was played at Hidasnémeti Sportpálya in Hidasnémeti.