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Diósgyőr II vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
4 – 2
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
R. Bartha 85'
G. Jurek 58'
L. Varjas 49' (OG)
B. Toth 7'
M. Zsiga 64'
T. Krisztian 13'
11/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 17DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Diósgyőr II60%
×Draw19%
Hidasnémeti21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
2.47
Hidasnémeti
1.42

Diósgyőr II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
79%
Diósgyőr II or Hidasnémeti
81%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
40%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
39%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
91%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
70%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
44%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
76%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
41%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
74%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.47

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
60%
level
19%
Hidasnémeti scores more
21%

Diósgyőr II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
B. Toth
13'
T. Krisztian
49'
L. VarjasOwn goal
58'
G. Jurek
64'
M. Zsiga
85'
R. Bartha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diósgyőr II vs Hidasnémeti

Diósgyőr II beat Hidasnémeti 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on November 14, 2021.

Goals: B. Toth (7'), T. Krisztian (13'), L. Varjas (49' o.g.), G. Jurek (58'), M. Zsiga (64'), R. Bartha (85').

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.