Hidasnémeti 0–5 BKV Előre: Result & Stats

Hidasnémeti

FT

0 – 5

BKV Előre

8/22/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 4Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti25%

×Draw22%

BKV Előre53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HidasnémetiExpected goals in this matchBKV Előre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.92

Hidasnémeti

1.24

BKV Előre

1.92

BKV Előre creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

1.32

2.53

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Hidasnémeti

0.89

BKV Előre

1.32

allows per match

Hidasnémeti

2.53

BKV Előre

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

BKV Előre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw

47%

Hidasnémeti or BKV Előre

78%

Draw or BKV Előre

75%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+

10%

BKV Előre wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals

71%

Hidasnémeti 2+ goals

35%

Hidasnémeti 3+ goals

13%

BKV Előre 1+ goals

85%

BKV Előre 2+ goals

57%

BKV Előre 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)

32%

BKV Előre (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

BKV Előre attack 1.32 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more

25%

level

22%

BKV Előre scores more

53%

BKV Előre at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff