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BKV Előre vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
A. Busai 73'
N. Szabo 55'
P. Csanalosi 13'
2/27/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 23BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BKV Előre68%
×Draw17%
Hidasnémeti15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
2.52
Hidasnémeti
1.10

BKV Előre creates 129% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.82
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.05
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
85%
BKV Előre or Hidasnémeti
83%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
32%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
46%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
92%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
71%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
45%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
67%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
30%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
82%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.82 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + BKV Előre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

BKV Előre scores more
68%
level
17%
Hidasnémeti scores more
15%

BKV Előre at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Csanalosi
55'
N. Szabo
73'
A. Busai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKV Előre vs Hidasnémeti

BKV Előre beat Hidasnémeti 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on February 27, 2022.

Goals: P. Csanalosi (13'), N. Szabo (55'), A. Busai (73').

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.