Hidasnémeti 0–4 Békéscsaba II: Result & Stats

Hidasnémeti

FT

0 – 4

Békéscsaba II

10/3/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Hidasnémeti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hidasnémeti31%

×Draw21%

Békéscsaba II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HidasnémetiExpected goals in this matchBékéscsaba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.09

Hidasnémeti

1.68

Békéscsaba II

2.09

Békéscsaba II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

1.66

2.53

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Hidasnémeti

0.89

Békéscsaba II

1.66

allows per match

Hidasnémeti

2.53

Békéscsaba II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Békéscsaba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hidasnémeti ↓

Békéscsaba II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hidasnémeti or draw

53%

Hidasnémeti or Békéscsaba II

79%

Draw or Békéscsaba II

69%

Winning margin

Hidasnémeti wins by 2+

15%

Békéscsaba II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hidasnémeti 1+ goals

81%

Hidasnémeti 2+ goals

50%

Hidasnémeti 3+ goals

24%

Békéscsaba II 1+ goals

88%

Békéscsaba II 2+ goals

62%

Békéscsaba II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)

40%

Békéscsaba II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hidasnémeti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Békéscsaba II away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hidasnémeti attack 0.89 + Békéscsaba II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Békéscsaba II attack 1.66 + Hidasnémeti defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hidasnémeti scores more

31%

level

21%

Békéscsaba II scores more

47%

Békéscsaba II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Békéscsaba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff