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Békéscsaba II vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Békéscsaba II
Békéscsaba II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
S. Marik 86'
T. Ilyes 68'
A. Olah 62', 49'
Z. Szabo 55'
S. Pap 15'
G. Menougong 33'
4/10/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 29Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Békéscsaba II56%
×Draw19%
Hidasnémeti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Békéscsaba II
2.55
Hidasnémeti
1.69

Békéscsaba II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Békéscsaba II
1.89
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Békéscsaba II
2.21
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Békéscsaba II+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Békéscsaba II ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Békéscsaba II or draw
75%
Békéscsaba II or Hidasnémeti
81%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
44%

Winning margin

Békéscsaba II wins by 2+
36%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Békéscsaba II 1+ goals
92%
Békéscsaba II 2+ goals
72%
Békéscsaba II 3+ goals
46%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
82%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
50%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Békéscsaba II (draw refunded)
69%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Békéscsaba II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.21 · 38 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Békéscsaba II attack 1.89 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.55

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Békéscsaba II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Békéscsaba II scores more
56%
level
19%
Hidasnémeti scores more
25%

Békéscsaba II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Békéscsaba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Pap
33'
G. Menougong
49'
A. Olah
55'
Z. Szabo
62'
A. Olah
68'
T. Ilyes
84'
T. Krisztian
86'
S. Marik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Békéscsaba II vs Hidasnémeti

Békéscsaba II beat Hidasnémeti 6-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 10, 2022.

Goals: S. Pap (15'), G. Menougong (33'), A. Olah (49', 62'), Z. Szabo (55'), T. Ilyes (68'), S. Marik (86').

The match was played at Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya in Békéscsaba.