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HHC vs Almere City II — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Almere City II
Almere City II
10/5/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 8Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HHC44%
×Draw23%
Almere City II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
1.79
Almere City II
1.52

HHC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

creates per match

HHC
1.90
Almere City II
1.86

allows per match

HHC
1.18
Almere City II
1.69

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HHC or draw
67%
HHC or Almere City II
77%
Draw or Almere City II
56%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
24%
Almere City II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
83%
HHC 2+ goals
53%
HHC 3+ goals
26%
Almere City II 1+ goals
78%
Almere City II 2+ goals
45%
Almere City II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
57%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Almere City II attack 1.86 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HHC scores more
44%
level
23%
Almere City II scores more
33%

HHC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HHC vs Almere City II

HHC and Almere City II drew 0-0 in Tweede Divisie on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.