Almere City II 2–1 HHC: Result & Stats

Almere City II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HHC

3/8/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen Veld 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Almere City II46%

×Draw22%

HHC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City IIExpected goals in this matchHHC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.59

Almere City II

1.93

HHC

1.59

Almere City II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

2.41

creates per match

1.53

1.65

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Almere City II

2.41

HHC

1.53

allows per match

Almere City II

1.65

HHC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par

HHC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

HHC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw

68%

Almere City II or HHC

78%

Draw or HHC

54%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+

25%

HHC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals

85%

Almere City II 2+ goals

57%

Almere City II 3+ goals

30%

HHC 1+ goals

80%

HHC 2+ goals

47%

HHC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)

59%

HHC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

HHC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.41 + HHC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.93

HHC attack 1.53 + Almere City II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Almere City II scores more

46%

level

22%

HHC scores more

32%

Almere City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff