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Hetten FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Hetten FC
Hetten FC
FT
3 – 5
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
9/5/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 35King Faisal Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hetten FC31%
×Draw25%
Al-Qadisiyah FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hetten FC
1.25
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.56

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hetten FC
1.58
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Hetten FC
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Hetten FC+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetten FC ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hetten FC or draw
56%
Hetten FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC
75%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
69%

Winning margin

Hetten FC wins by 2+
13%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hetten FC 1+ goals
71%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
36%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
13%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
46%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hetten FC (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetten FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetten FC attack 1.58 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Hetten FC defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hetten FC scores more
31%
level
25%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
44%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hetten FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Hetten FC 5-3 in Division 1 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at King Faisal Sport City Stadium in Jizan.