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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
2 – 0
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
12/10/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 16Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC62%
×Draw21%
Hetten FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.96
Hetten FC
0.91

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 115% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.60
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.93
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
83%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Hetten FC
79%
Draw or Hetten FC
38%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
37%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
86%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
58%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
31%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
60%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
23%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
79%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.60 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
62%
level
21%
Hetten FC scores more
17%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Hetten FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Hetten FC 2-0 in Division 1 on December 10, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.