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Hetten FC vs Al Jabalain — Division 1 2018

Hetten FC
Hetten FC
FT
0 – 3
Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
9/10/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 4King Faisal Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hetten FC34%
×Draw25%
Al Jabalain42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hetten FC
1.35
Al Jabalain
1.53

Al Jabalain creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Hetten FC
1.58
Al Jabalain
1.17

allows per match

Hetten FC
1.89
Al Jabalain
1.11

finishing

Hetten FC+0.00on par
Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetten FC ↓

Al Jabalain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hetten FC or draw
58%
Hetten FC or Al Jabalain
75%
Draw or Al Jabalain
66%

Winning margin

Hetten FC wins by 2+
15%
Al Jabalain wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hetten FC 1+ goals
74%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
39%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
15%
Al Jabalain 1+ goals
78%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
45%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hetten FC (draw refunded)
45%
Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetten FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetten FC attack 1.58 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Hetten FC defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hetten FC scores more
34%
level
25%
Al Jabalain scores more
42%

Al Jabalain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Hetten FC 0–3 Al Jabalain

Al Jabalain beat Hetten FC 3-0 in Division 1 on September 10, 2019.

The match was played at King Faisal Sport City Stadium in Jizan.