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Al Jabalain vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
3 – 0
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
2/4/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 23Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Jabalain61%
×Draw22%
Hetten FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.94
Hetten FC
0.94

Al Jabalain creates 106% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.55
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.99
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
82%
Al Jabalain or Hetten FC
78%
Draw or Hetten FC
39%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
36%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
86%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
58%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
30%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
61%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
24%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
77%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.99 · 128 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.55 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al Jabalain defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
61%
level
22%
Hetten FC scores more
18%

Al Jabalain at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jabalain vs Hetten FC

Al Jabalain beat Hetten FC 3-0 in Division 1 on February 4, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.