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Hetman Zamosc vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Hetman Zamosc
Hetman Zamosc
FT
1 – 4
Łagów
Łagów
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion OSiR w Zamościu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hetman Zamosc18%
×Draw21%
Łagów61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hetman Zamosc
0.98
Łagów
2.03

Łagów creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hetman Zamosc
0.95
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Hetman Zamosc
2.70
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetman Zamosc ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hetman Zamosc or draw
39%
Hetman Zamosc or Łagów
79%
Draw or Łagów
82%

Winning margin

Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+
6%
Łagów wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals
62%
Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals
26%
Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals
8%
Łagów 1+ goals
87%
Łagów 2+ goals
60%
Łagów 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)
22%
Łagów (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetman Zamosc at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.70 · 20 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.95 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Łagów attack 1.36 + Hetman Zamosc defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hetman Zamosc scores more
18%
level
21%
Łagów scores more
61%

Łagów at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Hetman Zamosc 1–4 Łagów

Łagów beat Hetman Zamosc 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Zamościu in Zamość.