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Łagów vs Hetman Zamosc — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
2 – 1
Hetman Zamosc
Hetman Zamosc
8/12/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Łagów76%
×Draw14%
Hetman Zamosc10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
3.04
Hetman Zamosc
1.04

Łagów creates 192% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Hetman Zamosc
0.80

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Hetman Zamosc
4.30

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Hetman Zamosc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
90%
Łagów or Hetman Zamosc
86%
Draw or Hetman Zamosc
24%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
57%
Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
95%
Łagów 2+ goals
80%
Łagów 3+ goals
57%
Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals
65%
Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals
28%
Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
88%
Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 3.04

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Łagów scores more
76%
level
14%
Hetman Zamosc scores more
10%

Łagów at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Łagów 2–1 Hetman Zamosc

Łagów beat Hetman Zamosc 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.